Regulation
Will Trump go to prison after guilty verdict? Here’s what crypto bettors think – DL News
- Donald Trump was found guilty of 34 crimes.
- Cryptocurrency bettors say there is a 17% chance he will go to prison by November.
After a jury returned a guilty verdict for Donald Trump on 34 counts hush money trial, cryptocurrency bettors have been betting on whether or not he will be in prison before the November elections.
A bet on the blockchain-based betting site Polymarket – called “Trump in jail before Election Day?” – now has nearly $897,000 up for grabs.
Probabilities?
Bettors say there’s a 17% chance the presumptive Republican presidential nominee will end up in prison before November 5.
This is a slight decline from the beginning of May, when bettors were pegging odds at 25%.
What is the Polymarket?
The Polymarket is a prediction market.
It allows people to place binary bets on anything from the singer or not Kate Perry will launch a memecoin if 2024 is the hottest year in registration.
The idea is that Internet experts can put that experience to good use, whatever it may be approval of a crypto fund or if the lost submarines will be found.
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Polymarket bettors have long experience with cases like this.
They accurately predicted the length of Changpeng Zhao’s prison sentence after Binance co-founder pleaded guilty to violating US money laundering laws, as well as the verdict in the criminal trial of FTX founder Sam Bankman Fried.
In the case of silence, Polymarket bettors had bet on the odds of a guilty verdict at 78%.
What is the process of silence?
Prosecutors accused Trump of falsifying corporate records in connection with secret payments made to retired porn star Stormy Daniels.
According to Daniels, she and Trump had an affair in 2006. Trump has denied it.
In the days before the 2016 election, Michael Cohen, then one of Trump’s lawyers, reportedly paid Daniels $130,000 to buy his silence.
Trump, in turn, repaid Cohen.
This is where his legal troubles begin: According to prosecutors, Trump deliberately – and illegally – labeled the payments as “legal fees” in an attempt to hide his motives.
Trump faces probation or up to four years in prison, according to the New York Times.
However, he likely won’t go to prison until his appeals are exhausted, Axios noticed.
Eric Johansson is the news editor of DL News. Do you have advice? Send him an email at eric@dlnews.com.