Bitcoin
Powell’s speech, Bitcoin, retail sales
Investing.com — Comments from Fed Chief Jerome Powell cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September. Investors will look to retail sales data for confirmation of a slowing economy, while there are more bank earnings to digest later in the session. Meanwhile, bitcoin gained as traders see a Trump presidential victory as more likely following the assassination attempt.
1. Consolidate a rate cut in September
Confidence is growing that the government will agree to an interest rate cut in September, following the president’s reasonably moderate comments on Monday.
In what could be his last public comments before the Fed goes into a blackout ahead of its July 30-31 policy meeting, Powell remained cautious but suggested that recent inflation data is trending in the right direction for the inflation rate to return to the Fed’s 2% target.
“In the second quarter, we actually made some more progress” in taming inflation, Powell said at an event at the Economic Club of Washington. “We had three better readings, and if you average them, that’s a pretty good place.”
Powell also said he does not see the U.S. economy facing major economic turmoil or a full-blown recession.
The comments were enough for markets to shift rate expectations again, with traders anticipating 68 basis points of easing this year. A September rate cut is now fully priced in, the CME FedWatch tool showed.
2. Futures fall ahead of retail sales data
U.S. stock futures retreated from record highs on Tuesday as investors looked for more clues about the health of the U.S. economy in the form of retail sales and bank profits.
At 4:10 a.m. ET (8:10 a.m. GMT), the contract was 40 points, or 0.1%, lower, down 9 points, or 0.2%, and down 22 points, or 0.2%.
Major indexes closed higher on Monday, with the blue chip closing at a new record high, as investors were buoyed by the perceived increased likelihood of a Republican president, which could pave the way for investor-friendly tax and fiscal policies.
There is more profit-taking to be done on Tuesday, particularly from the banking sector, but much focus will also be on the release of US data for June.
The expectation is for a 0.3% drop on a monthly basis, as consumers are facing high interest rates and high prices.
3. Trump selects Vance as running mate
Donald Trump returned to the spotlight on Monday, receiving a warm welcome on the first day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, just days after surviving an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania on Saturday.
Trump has officially been nominated as the party’s 2024 presidential candidate and has announced US Senator JD Vance as his running mate.
The four-day convention will culminate with Trump’s prime-time address on Thursday, when he will formally accept the party’s nomination to face President Joe Biden in a rematch of their 2020 race.
The attack reinforced expectations of a Trump victory in the November election, especially after Biden’s poor performance in the first debate between the two last month.
President Biden gave an interview to NBC on Monday, dismissing concerns about his mental health and indicating he had no intention of dropping his reelection bid.
The race between Trump and Biden remains tight, according to public opinion polls, although Trump leads in several swing states that are likely to decide the election.
4. More bank earnings
The banking sector will remain in focus on Tuesday, with companies including Bank of America (NYSE:), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) and Charles Schwab (NYSE:) scheduled to report their quarterly earnings before the open.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) said Monday that its profit more than doubled in the second quarter due to strong debt underwriting and fixed-income trading, but fell from a stellar first quarter when profits were the highest since 2021.
The resilience of the U.S. economy has given corporate executives the confidence to pursue acquisitions, debt sales and equity offerings.
“We expect equity investors to focus on the second-quarter earnings season through the rest of this month through early August,” analysts at Yardeni Research said in a note.
“If earnings come in better than expected (as we project), then the bull market should broaden as investors continue to discount cuts in the federal funds rate later this year, as they did on Thursday and Friday. The breadth of positive three-month forward earnings growth rates across companies continues to widen.”
5. Bitcoin in demand
price surged on Tuesday, adding to gains from the previous session, boosted by the prospect of friendlier cryptocurrency regulations in the US if Donald Trump is to win a second term in the 2024 presidential race.
As of 04:10 ET (08:10 GMT), Bitcoin was up 0.3% at $63,115, gaining nearly 9% this week and nearly 50% year-to-date.
Speculation over Trump helped the token rally, overcoming concerns over selling pressure from distributions from now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange Mt Gox, which saw Bitcoin fall to $54,000 in early July.
Bitcoin’s rally came after a failed assassination attempt on Trump over the weekend, which was seen as a major boost to the former president’s popularity.
Trump has maintained a largely supportive stance towards the cryptocurrency industry, recently stating that the future of Bitcoin should be built in the US and not abroad.
This contrasts with a series of crackdowns on the industry by the SEC and the Department of Justice in recent years.