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June 2024 Crypto Market Forecast – Forbes Consultant

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June 2024 Crypto Market Forecast – Forbes Consultant

Editorial Note: We earn a commission for partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or ratings.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices have recovered and other major cryptocurrencies have gained ground over the past month as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission surprised Wall Street by making a rule change to allow the creation of Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds at View.

Investors have already flocked to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies following the SEC’s approval in January of the first spot bitcoin ETFs for trading on major U.S. exchanges. However, regulators continue to target the cryptocurrency industry, taking on cryptocurrency exchanges and their high-level executives, including associates of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.

Furthermore, cryptocurrency investors hope that the Federal Reserve has made enough progress on inflation to navigate a soft landing for the US economy and begin cutting interest rates in the second half of 2024.

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May Crypto Market Performance

After rising to $3,973 for the month, Ethereum was on track to close May above $3,770 as investors expected the first spot Ethereum ETF Getting to the market could be just around the corner.

Unlike futures ETFs – which use futures contracts to track the potential future price of an underlying asset, spot cryptocurrency ETFs track the current or spot price of a cryptocurrency.

Optimism surrounding the possible SEC approval of spot Ethereum ETFs also pushed other cryptocurrencies higher in the month of May, with bitcoin prices rising to $72,000.

However, the price of bitcoin retreated from these highs towards the end of the month, although BTC was still on track to end May above $68,200.

In total, bitcoin prices rose 5.9% in May and are now up more than 60% year to date. Ethereum prices are also up over 17.1% for the month and are up 64.1% overall so far in 2024.

Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, ChainLink (LINK) was the best performer in May with a 29% gain. Cardano (ADA) was the worst performer with a 1.8% drop.

SEC Opens Doors to Spot Ethereum ETFs

Less than six months after the SEC approved the first Spot bitcoin ETFsThe regulator recently made a major rule change that could pave the way for the first spot Ethereum ETFs to trade on major US exchanges.

On May 23, the SEC issued a rule change that allows three major US exchanges to list and trade potentially eight different Ethereum spot funds. Approvals include the following grants and funds:

  • NYSE Arca: Grayscale Ethereum Trust and Bitwise Ethereum ETF
  • Nasdaq: iShares Ethereum Trust
  • CBOE BZX: VanEck Ethereum Trust, ARK 21Shares Ethereum ETF, Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF, Fidelity Ethereum Fund and Franklin Ethereum ETF

This ruling gives exchanges the green light to list SEC-approved Ethereum spot ETFs, but only if the SEC has first approved the individual funds themselves. The rule change does not guarantee that all of the funds mentioned above will be approved or that they will be launched in the near future. The SEC has yet to decide on each Ethereum ETF application individually and has not provided any timeline for those decisions.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have paved the way

After years of repeated rejections, the SEC finally approved the top spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, and the funds were a success.

The 11 SEC-approved bitcoin spot ETFs generated net inflows of more than $12 billion, according to FactSet. Top bitcoin spot funds include BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Grayscale’s Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), each of which has nearly $20 billion in assets.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are not the same

Bitcoin and Ethereum have separated themselves from thousands of other cryptocurrencies as market leaders, accounting for 70.8% of the total global cryptocurrency market capitalization. However, while both Bitcoin and Ethereum have been exceptional long-term investments up to this point, their designs and goals are very different.

Bitcoin investors view the cryptocurrency primarily as a store of value and an alternative to traditional government-backed fiat currencies.

Ether is the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network, which houses decentralized applications, smart contracts, non-fungible tokensor NFTs and other decentralized blockchain projects.

How Spot Ethereum ETFs May Differ From Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Market experts predict that the first class of spot Ethereum ETFs will be much smaller than their spot Bitcoin counterparts.

The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), which currently trades over the counter in the United States, it only has about $11 billion in assets under management. Grayscale secured a major legal victory over the SEC in 2023, which helped pave the way for the SEC to approve the first bitcoin ETFs just months later.

Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, says the SEC ruling and the potential launch of spot Ethereum ETFs likely mean Ethereum prices are poised to reach new highs in the near future.

“As a reminder, both bitcoin and ETH reached record highs in 2021, but only bitcoin managed to surpass the previous record in 2024,” says Kruger.

“Given the positive momentum on the adoption and regulatory fronts, we suspect that ETH will indeed be able to reach a new all-time high, which could very well translate into another big increase in bullish momentum in the coming days and weeks.”

Other Crypto Headlines

As the 2024 election season ramps up, cryptocurrencies are receiving high-level attention in Washington, D.C.

In May, the House of Representatives passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act by 279 votes to 136. The bill gained unanimous Republican support and 71 House Democrats, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, voted to favor. also.

If sanctioned, it will provide a detailed framework for the disclosure and registration of digital asset companies. It would also make the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, the main crypto industry regulator.

The SEC has faced harsh criticism from crypto experts for keeping the industry under traditional disclosure regimes.

Crypto and the US Presidential Race

Former president and presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has apparently changed his mind about cryptocurrencies.

In May, Trump said that, if elected, he would commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the cryptocurrency advocate and former operator of the black market website Silk Road, who is currently serving multiple life sentences. Although Trump has previously said he is “not a fan” of cryptocurrencies, his campaign announced in May that it will now accept cryptocurrency donations.

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoke at the Consensus 2024 event in late May, signaling his support for blockchain innovation and his commitment to protecting the industry from hostile regulators.

Consensus 2024 was a cryptocurrency industry-related event organized by crypto media company CoinDesk.

Kennedy had previously highlighted the potential power of cryptocurrency to help protect Americans’ transactional freedom.

Phillip Shoemaker, CEO of Identity.com, says the 2024 elections could be the first in which top US politicians use cryptocurrency policies to attract voters.

“Congress promoted a market structure bill as a way to properly regulate crypto, and this represents huge progress for the space,” says Shoemaker.

He says there are many voters in the crypto space who are single-issue voters, and politicians seem to be aware of the opportunity this stance creates.

“You have Trump and RFK Jr. talking positively about crypto — and again, this is brand new.”

Another FTX sentence

On May 28, former FTX executive Ryan Salame was sentenced to 7.5 years in prison for his role in crimes associated with the 2022 collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX.

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison in March, but Salame is the first of Bankman-Fried’s associates to be convicted and sentenced as well.

Crypto Catalysts Ahead

A major cryptocurrency market catalyst in June could be the Federal Reserve. In addition to announcing an interest rate decision at its meeting ending June 12, the FOMC will also provide updated long-term economic projections, including its expectations for how many interest rate cuts investors can expect in 2024.

The bond market predicts a 64.7% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by November 2024, but a positive employment report in May or an inflation reading could put pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates at the same level. current for longer than expected.

Stephanie Vaughan, co-founder of decentralized finance firm Veda, says the launch of the first spot Ethereum ETFs will be a major crypto market catalyst in June and beyond.

“These ETFs are basically a traditional wrapper for accessing the emerging world of crypto – in this case, the world’s most important smart contract blockchain. More than that, I think Ethereum ETFs will help drive education and understanding in terms of what Ethereum actually does and why it is such an incredible innovation,” says Vaughan.

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We are the editorial team of Chain Feed Staff, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Chain Feed Staff, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Grayscale Unveils Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF

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Grayscale Unveils Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF

Bitcoin Currency

Grayscale Investments The Bitcoin Mini Trust began trading on Wednesday with a 0.15% expense ratio, offering a lower-cost option for bitcoin exposure in the market.

The Mini Trust, which has the symbol BTC and trades on NYSE Arca, is structured as a spin-off of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). New shares will be distributed to existing GBTC shareholders with the fund contributing a portion of its bitcoin holdings to the new product. According to a company press releaseBTC’s S-1 registration statement became effective last week.

“The Grayscale team has believed in the transformative potential of Bitcoin since the initial launch of GBTC in 2013, and we are excited to launch the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust to help further lower the barrier to entry for Bitcoin in an SEC-regulated investment vehicle,” said David LaValle, Senior Managing Director and Head of ETFs at Grayscale.

The Bitcoin Mini Trust’s debut comes amid growing interest in ETFs based on the current price of the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, bitcoin and ether. Spot bitcoin ETFs have generated nearly $18 billion in inflows since the first ones began trading on Jan. 11, though GBTC has lost nearly $19 billion in assets.

This fund differs from other funds because it is a conversion of an existing fund and has a 1.5% fee, the highest among spot bitcoin products that have received SEC approval this year.

Mini Bitcoin Trust Low Fee

On a Post X On Wednesday, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted the Bitcoin Mini Trust’s “lowest fee in the category…”

“[Important] to recognize how incredibly cheap 15bps is — about 10x cheaper than spot ETFs in other countries and other vehicles,” Balchunas wrote, adding that this pricing strategy reflects the competitive nature of the U.S. ETF market, which he referred to as the “ETF Terrordome.”

“This is what Terrordome does to fund [cost]. It reaches 1.5% [and] end in 0.15%, how to go from [a] country club to the jungle. But that’s why all the flows are here, investor paradise,” he noted.

Read more: Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit Daily High of Over $1 Billion

Bitcoin was recently trading at around $66,350, virtually flat since U.S. markets opened on Wednesday.

Grayscale also offers two spot Ethereum ETFs, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and the Grayscale Ethereum (ETH) Mini Trustwhose performance is based on ETHE. ETHE outflows exceeded $1.8 billion in its first six days of trading, while ETH added more than $181 million in the same period, according to Farside. The remaining seven ETFs generated about $1.2 billion in inflows.

The story continues

Read more: Spot Ethereum ETFs Approved to Start Trading

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Drops Below $65K After FOMC as Middle East Tensions Rise

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Drops Below $65K After FOMC as Middle East Tensions Rise

Cryptocurrencies fell sharply on Wednesday as rising geopolitical risks captivated investors’ attention following the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $64,500 from around $66,500, where it traded following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference and is down more than 2% in the past 24 hours. Major altcoins including ether (ETH)sunbathing (SUN)Avalanche AVAX (AVAX) and Cardano (ADA) also fell, while Ripple’s XRP saved some of its early gains today. The broad cryptocurrency market benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index was 0.8% lower than 24 hours ago.

The liquidation happened when the New York Times reported that Iran’s leaders have ordered retaliation against Israel over the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, raising the risk of a wider conflict in the region.

Earlier today, the Fed left benchmark interest rates unchanged and gave little indication that a widely expected rate cut in September is a given. The Fed’s Powell said that while no decision has been made on a September cut, the “broad sense is that we are getting closer” to cutting rates.

While digital assets suffered losses, most traditional asset classes rose higher during the day. U.S. 10-year bond yields fell 10 basis points, while gold rose 1.5% to $2,450, slightly below its record highs, and WTI crude oil prices rose 5%. Stocks also rallied during the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index rebounding 3% and the S&P 500 closing the session 2.2% higher, led by 12% gains in chipmaker giant Nvidia (NVDA).

The different performances across asset classes could be due to traders’ positioning ahead of the Fed meeting, Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said in an emailed note.

“Equities may have been slightly underutilized after the recent dip, while bitcoin is coming off a strong period with solid inflows, while gold has recovered after a period of weakness,” he said.

“Overall, the combination of Fed rate cuts, bipartisan focus on cryptocurrency policy issues, and the prospect of a second Trump administration that could advocate for a weaker U.S. dollar should be viewed as very positive for bitcoin,” he concluded.

UPDATE (July 31, 2024, 21:30 UTC): Adds grayscale comments.

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Donald Trump’s Cryptocurrency Enthusiasm Is Just Another Scam

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Donald Trump's Cryptocurrency Enthusiasm Is Just Another Scam

Former US President Donald Trump spoke at the Libertarian National Convention in May and lent his a strong support to crypto: “I will also stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto. … I will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of bitcoin is made in the US, not taken overseas. I will support the right to self-custody. To the 50 million crypto holders in the country, I say this: With your vote, I will keep Elizabeth Warren and her henchmen out of your bitcoin.”

Former US President Donald Trump spoke at the Libertarian National Convention in May and lent his a strong support to crypto: “I will also stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto. … I will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of bitcoin is made in the US, not taken overseas. I will support the right to self-custody. To the 50 million crypto holders in the country, I say this: With your vote, I will keep Elizabeth Warren and her henchmen out of your bitcoin.”

Trump continued to court the cryptocurrency industry in the months that followed; he he appeared at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville this week, along with independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s parting words to Trump — “Have fun with your bitcoin, your cryptocurrency and whatever else you’re playing with” — were less than enthusiastic, but the industry itself remains packed with ardent Trump supporters.

This turnaround came as a surprise, given Trump’s previous strong opposition to cryptocurrency. When Facebook was floating its Libra cryptocurrency in 2019, Trump tweeted: “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air.” Former national security adviser John Bolton’s White House memoir, The Room Where It Happened, quotes Trump as telling Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin: “Don’t be a trade negotiator. Go after Bitcoin.” [for fraud].” In 2021, Trump counted Fox Business that bitcoin “just looks like a scam. … I want the dollar to be the world’s currency.”

Why the change? There doesn’t seem to be any crypto votes. Trump’s “50 million” number comes from a poorly sampled push survey by cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase which claimed 52 million cryptocurrency users in the United States starting in February 2023. But one survey A survey conducted last October by the US Federal Reserve showed that only 7% of adults (about 18.3 million people) admitted to owning or using cryptocurrencies — down from 10% in 2022 and 12% in 2021. Many of these people are likely wallet owners who were left holding the bag after crypto plunged in 2022 — and are not necessarily new fans.

What Trump wants from the cryptocurrency industry is money. The cryptocurrency industry has already raised more than US$ 180 million to run in the 2024 US elections through his super PACs Fairshake, Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress.

Fairshake spent $10 million on taking Rep. Katie Porter in the primary battle for Dianne Feinstein’s California Senate seat by funding Porter’s pro-crypto rival Adam Schiff. This put $2 million to knock out Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the Democratic primary for New York’s 16th District in favor of pro-crypto George Latimer. In the Utah Senate Republican primary, Rep. John Curtis defeated Trent Staggs with the help of $4.7 million from Defend American Jobs. In Alabama’s House District 2, the majority of campaign expenses came from the cryptocurrency industry.

Fairshake is substantially financed by Coinbase, cryptocurrency issuer Ripple Labs, and Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, or a16z. Silicon Valley was awash in cryptocurrencies during the 2021 bubble, and a16z in particular continues to promote blockchain startups to this day — and still holds a huge amount of bubble crypto tokens that he wishes he could cash in on.

Many in Silicon Valley would like an authoritarian who they think will let them run wild with money — while bailing them out in tough times. Indeed, Trump promised Bitcoin 2024 participants that he hold all bitcoins that the United States acquires. (Never mind that it is usually acquired as the proceeds of crime.) Silicon Valley explicitly sees regulation of any kind as its greatest enemy. Three a16z manifestos — “Politics and the Future” It is “The Techno-Optimist Manifesto” and 2024 “The Small Tech Agenda—describe co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz’s demands for a technology-powered capitalism unhindered by regulation or social considerations. They name “experts,” “bureaucracy,” and “social responsibility” as their “enemies.” Their 2024 statement alleges that banks are unfairly cutting off startups from the banking system; these would be crypto companies funded by a16z.

Trump’s vice presidential pick, Senator J.D. Vance, is a former Silicon Valley venture capitalist. He was once employed by Peter Thiel, who bankrolled Vance’s successful 2022 Senate run; Vance has been described as a “Thiel creation”. He has increased support for the Trump ticket among his venture capital associates. Vance is a bitcoin holder and a frequent advocate of encryption. He recently released a draft bill to review how the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) control crypto assets. In 2023, he circulated a bill to prevent banks from cutting out cryptocurrency exchanges.

Minimal regulation has been tried before. It led to the wild exuberance of the 1920s, which ended with the Black Tuesday crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s. Regulators like the SEC were put in place during this era to protect investors and transform the securities market from a jungle into a well-tended garden, leading to many prosperous and stable decades that followed.

Crypto provides the opposite of a stable and functional system; it is a practical example of how a lack of regulation allows opportunists and scammers to cause large-scale disasters. The 2022 Crypto Crash repeated the 2008 financial crisis in miniature. FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried was feted as a financial prodigy who would perform economic miracles if you just gave him carte blanche; he ended up stealing billions of dollars of customers’ money, destroying the lives of ordinary people, and is now in a prison cell.

U.S. regulators have long been concerned about the prospect of cryptocurrency contagion to the broader economy. Criminal money laundering is rampant in cryptocurrency; even the Trump administration has made rules in December 2020 to reduce the risk of money laundering from crypto. Meanwhile, the crypto industry has persistently tried to infiltrate systemically risky corners of the economy, such as pension funds.

Four U.S. banks collapsed during the 2023 banking crisis, the first since 2020. Two of them, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank, were deeply embedded in the crypto world — Silvergate in particular appears to have collapsed directly from its heavy reliance on FTX and failed a few months after that. Silicon Valley Bank was not involved in crypto but collapsed due to a run on the bench due to panic among venture capital deposit holders, particularly Thiel’s Founders Fund.

Project 2025the Heritage Foundation mammoth conservative wish list The plan, which Trump and Vance have both endorsed and tried to distance themselves from at various times, emphasizes the importance of party loyalists, noting especially financial regulation. The plan recommends replacing as much of the federal bureaucracy as possible with loyalists and “trusted” career officials rather than nonpartisan “experts.” Vance defended in 2021 that Trump should “fire every mid-level bureaucrat, every civil servant in the administrative state” and “replace them with our people.” Loyalty will likely trump competence.

Crypto is barely mentioned directly in Project 2025 — suggesting it has little active support among the broader conservative coalition. But near the end of the manifesto is a plan to dismantle most U.S. financial regulations and investor protections put in place since the 1930s, suggesting the exemption the crypto industry seeks from current SEC and CFTC regulations.

Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, started as an ideological project to promote a strange variant of Murray Rothbard’s anarcho-capitalism and the Austrian gold-backed economy—the kind we abandoned to escape the Great Depression. Crypto quickly co-opted the “end of the Fed” and “establishment elites” conspiracy theories of the John Birch Society and Eustace Mullins. It’s a way for billionaire capitalists like Thiel, Andreessen and Elon Musk to claim they’re not part of the so-called elite.

If a second Trump administration were to limp along with financial regulators and allow cryptocurrencies to have free rein, it could help foster the collapse of the U.S. economy that bitcoin claimed to prevent. But Trump is more likely to be happy to take the crypto money and run.

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Trump’s Bitcoin (BTC) Reserve Plan Seen as Just a ‘Small Token Stash’

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Trump's Bitcoin (BTC) Reserve Plan Seen as Just a 'Small Token Stash'

Donald Trump’s recent promise to create a “strategic national stockpile of Bitcoin” may not turn out to be as big a commitment as the hype surrounding the announcement makes it seem.

“Trump’s proposal is extremely modest,” said George Selgin, director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institutea Washington-based public policy group. “It doesn’t have much economic implication.”

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