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falls to two-month low; $50K becomes key support By Investing.com

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© Reuters Bitcoin (BTC) Miners' Capitulation Is Still On: Will It Ever End?

Investing.com– Bitcoin’s price fell sharply to a two-month low on Thursday, breaking through a key support level as uncertainty over several selling pressure points, most notably the now-defunct Mt Gox exchange, kept traders averse to the token.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency received little support from a weak dollar, which fell amid increased bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Broader cryptocurrency prices also followed Bitcoin lower.

At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), it was down 5% at $57,722.0, just above the session low of $57,053.

Mt Gox dump fears hit Bitcoin

Bitcoin suffered steep losses last week as traders positioned themselves for a potential sell-off event stemming largely from now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange Mt Gox.

The exchange’s liquidators said they will begin returning Bitcoin stolen during a 2014 hack to customers starting in early July. While the scale of the distribution remained unclear, traders were betting that given Bitcoin’s massive price appreciation over the past decade, most recipients of the token would be inclined to sell.

Such a scenario presents a large amount of selling pressure on Bitcoin. Several major whales were seen mobilizing Bitcoin on exchanges for a selloff, while the token was also pressured by the reported sale of tokens confiscated by the German government.

Fears of a sell-off have caused traders to become largely averse to the world’s largest cryptocurrency. This selling pressure has spread to broader crypto markets, even as recent data shows some improvement in capital flows into cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin market “remarkably robust”

However, despite these losses, new analysis from Glassnode suggests that the Bitcoin market remains remarkably robust. According to the on-chain analytics platform, aggregate investor profitability is still strong, with the average coin maintaining a 2x earnings multiple.

Glassnode’s analysis reveals that the average coin in profit holds an unrealized gain of $41,300, with a cost basis of approximately $19,400, while the average coin in loss holds an unrealized loss of $5,300, with a cost basis of about $66,100. This divergence highlights potential selling pressure points as investors weigh realizing gains against mitigating losses.

The average cost per active investor remains around $50,000, Glassnode said, a key level the market needs to stay above to keep the macroeconomic market bullish.

Cryptocurrency Price Today: Altcoins Fall, Rate Optimism Provides Little Support

Broader cryptocurrency prices also retreated on Thursday and have also suffered over the past week.

The world’s No. 2 token fell 5.4% to $3,161.49 as traders largely ignored recent speculation about a spot Ether exchange-traded fund. Ether hit a more than one-month low, having largely erased gains made in May on the hype around a spot ETF.

and fell between 4% and 8%, while among the meme coins, and fell about 8% each.

Cryptocurrency prices got little support from a weak dollar, which fell as a series of weak labor market and business activity readings raised expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed.

Aggressive signals in the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting tempered that optimism somewhat, while several Fed officials also sounded cautious about interest rate cuts.

The focus now turns to key data released on Friday, which should offer more definitive clues about the jobs market.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)



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Bitcoin Will Surge to $100K After Q4, Here’s Why

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Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Shows Signs of Possible Narrative Shift; $100K Soon?

Dan Weiskopf, portfolio manager at Tidal Financial Group, spoke with David Lin and discussed the future prospects of Bitcoin. The focus was on the future of Bitcoin, especially its potential to reach $100,000. The talk also touched on recent market trends, noting strong interest in Bitcoin ETFs as a possible boost to its price. Looking ahead, there is hope that more platforms will approve Bitcoin ETFs, possibly pushing its price to $100,000.

Forecasts and Volatility: The Path to New Highs

While some predict Bitcoin could go as high as $150,000 or even $1 million, Dan agrees that it needs to hit $100,000 first. Dan also acknowledged Bitcoin’s volatility, saying that large price drops of as much as 50% to 70% could happen, drawing on his experience since 2017.

“We’re going to new highs because I think partly because ETF inflows have been really strong lately. Yeah, and then I think you’ll have more platforms approving spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q4, and we’re going to go up to 100K,” he said.

Big Investors and the Transformative Power of Bitcoin

He also discussed what is persuading large investors to get in on this cycle. He mentioned two key factors. Many argue that if you haven’t invested in Bitcoin, you’re missing out, citing its strong performance over the past decade. This pressure could influence returns and client expectations.

However, he emphasized a deeper reason: if you are not embracing the transformation driven by Bitcoin and digital assets, you may face challenges. This technology has the potential to reshape industries, just as the internet revolutionized business.

“A lot of people look at Bitcoin and crypto and don’t appreciate that with higher prices comes more supply. We talk about 100K, I would expect more supply to come into the market as we go up, and that’s not really new news, but it’s higher demand that’s offsetting that supply,” he added.

Read too: It’s time tor ETH Point ETF: Here’s What to Expect From the Ethereum Price Rally

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Bitcoin Jumps as Markets See Increased Chances of Trump Victory

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Bitcoin hit a two-week high on Monday as betting markets suggested a higher chance of crypto-friendly candidate Donald Trump winning the US presidential election.

The value of the world’s largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, was up about 5% as of 1:40 p.m. London time to $62,781.48, according to CoinGecko.

The rally follow the dramatic and failed assassination attempt about the former president Trump on Saturday.

“There is a ‘parallel’ to the assassination of President Reagan in 1981,” even though it was not an election year, Ben Emons, chief investment officer at FedWatch Advisors, said in an emailed note.

“After the incident, Reagan’s popularity skyrocketed amid a double-dip recession. The S&P 500, however, fell 9% in the aftermath due to the economic malaise. But in the current strong economy, former President Trump’s favorability is likely to skyrocket and impact markets positively.”

Investors said on the weekend they were hoping that so-called “Trump victory trades” would get a boost. These trades broadened to include several cryptocurrency stocks, such as Coinbase Global and miner Riot platformswhich rose 4.5% and 5.25%, respectively, in pre-market trading.

“Bitcoin’s price rose about 9% over the weekend, which could indicate that investors are hoping that a Trump presidency will create a more favorable regulatory climate for the crypto industry,” Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale Investments, told CNBC in an email.

Trump has yet to lay out any detailed proposals on cryptocurrency regulation, but the Republican candidate is now seen as broadly supportive of the sector — despite his past skepticism. He is set to speak at a major annual bitcoin conference later this month.

Trump’s campaign started accepting donations of the cryptocurrency industry in May and its the message became increasingly positive about the future of these digital assets. He also sought to position oneself against Democrats who are in favor of controlling the industry, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren.

“In addition, macro policy changes under a second Trump presidency — including continued deficit spending, reduced U.S. leadership in international affairs, weaker Federal Reserve independence, and a desire for currency weakness to help reduce the trade deficit, among other things — could introduce downside risks to the U.S. dollar in the medium term. Any downside risks to the U.S. dollar could provide support for Bitcoin’s price,” Pandl added.

Last month, analysts at Standard Chartered said that the US presidential election is the next key catalyst for bitcoin’s price and a Trump victory could push it to $150,000 by the end of the year.

“Cryptocurrencies have not had an easy time in recent months. We are currently in a crisis of previously growing capital inflows into this market that can be measured by the capitalization of stablecoins, which has frozen in the last two months,” Grzegorz Drozdz, market analyst at Conotoxia, told CNBC in an email.

With a higher likelihood of a Trump presidency and the consequent reduced chances of unrest and destabilization in the US, Drozdz now sees a potential “influx of confidence into the markets,” which could positively impact cryptocurrencies and bitcoin in the coming weeks.

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Germany Sells Final Bitcoin Reserves of Initial $3 Billion in Holdings

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Germany Sells Final Bitcoin Reserves of Initial $3 Billion in Holdings

Germany Sells Final Bitcoin Reserves of Initial $3 Billion in Holdings

The German government completed the sale of its remaining Bitcoin holdings on July 12. The final transaction involved 3,846 Bitcoin, valued at around $62,604 per Bitcoin, which were sent to “Flow Traders and 139Po,” entities likely for institutional/OTC deposit services, according to for Arkham Intelligence.

The majority of the 50,000 Bitcoins sold by the German government over the past three weeks originated from asset seizures. This sale marked the culmination of weeks of increased sales activity by the German government, which unloaded tens of thousands of Bitcoins in multiple tranches. This significant liquidation was a key factor in keeping the Bitcoin selloff at a low of $54,000 on July 5.

Despite Germany’s exit from its Bitcoin holdings, market pressures remain due to Mt. Gox’s impending $9 billion repayment plan. The Mt. Gox exchange, which collapsed in 2014 when Bitcoin was still in the hundreds of dollars, has long been a source of market anxiety. The repayment plan aims to compensate creditors, potentially adding significant selling pressure to the market in the coming weeks. However, it is difficult to estimate the impact of Mt. Gox’s repayment on the markets due to several factors.

Amid heightened selling pressure, institutional investors seized the opportunity to buy the dip. Data from CoinShares showed that U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $295 million in inflows during the week of July 8, reversing a trend of suppressed inflows into these investment funds. This activity suggests that institutional investors remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

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Bitcoin surges as traders bet on Donald Trump election victory after shooting

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Bitcoin surges as traders bet on Donald Trump election victory after shooting

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Bitcoin surged on Monday following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, as investors increased their bets on the former president winning the US presidential election in November.

Bitcoin’s price rose as much as 9.1 percent to $62,830, its highest level in two weeks, after a shooter hit Trump in the ear at a campaign rally over the weekend. The Republican is seen as the most pro-crypto candidate, having hosted industry executives at Mar-a-Lago and expressed enthusiasm for bitcoin mining in the U.S.

Trump’s campaign also accepted cryptocurrency payments, a first for a major U.S. political party, raising hopes of an end to the U.S. regulatory crackdown on the sector seen in recent years.

“The probability of a Donald Trump victory has increased significantly,” said Grzegorz Dróżdż, market analyst at exchange firm Conotoxia, adding that a Trump presidency would have a “positive impact” on cryptocurrencies.

Shares of Trump’s Truth social media company jumped 60 percent in premarket trading. Trump Media & Technology Group went public in March in a merger with a blank-check company and rallied ahead of the debate between Trump and President Joe Biden last month.

The slimmer chances of a second Trump presidency were also felt in broader financial markets. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose in a more muted version of the reaction that followed Biden’s disastrous debate performance.

Many investors believe Trump’s tax-cutting policies would increase deficits and inflation, hurting U.S. Treasuries and boosting the dollar, in a pattern similar to what occurred after his 2016 election victory.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.2% in morning trade, having weakened so far in July as investors increased their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose 0.03 percentage point to 4.21 percent, reflecting a small decline in price. Contracts tracking Wall Street’s blue-chip S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent ahead of the New York open.

Monday’s movements “touch[s] with a Trumpian theme given the popular narrative that he is good for business and… his pro-crypto stance,” Rabobank analysts said in a note to clients.

“For markets, the complexities of the US political landscape have boiled down to the assumption that the weekend’s events will lead to a greater chance of Trump winning the November presidential election,” they added.

Bitcoin peaked above $70,000 in mid-March but has struggled to make headway since the so-called halving event in April, when the number of daily bitcoins available for miners to share to secure the bitcoin network fell from 900 to 450. Some analysts had expected bitcoin to rebound after the halving.

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