Donald Trump guilty: crypto regulation at risk?

Donald Trump was found guilty of 34 charges by a Manhattan court, putting his proposals on cryptocurrency regulation at risk.

However, the news did not cause any shock in the cryptocurrency market.

Trump’s memecoin

In particular, there is a token, whose ticker is TRUMP, which belongs to the MAGA memecoin.

During 2024, the TRUMP token price on Wednesday it had risen from $0.25 to an all-time high of more than $15. In other words, in just under five months it had gained 10,000%, with most of this increase occurring between mid-January and early March.

Since then it first fell from $9.7 to $3.9, before recovering towards $15.

Yesterday, after the news of Donald Trump’s criminal conviction was published, it suffered a rapid decline (-36% in two hours), but after briefly falling below 10 dollars, it then recorded a notable rebound which brought it back to the highs historians. .

Subsequently, however, it began to decline again, which shows that the often high volatility of memecoins is due exclusively to pure speculation.

Before the news, it had gone from $12.4 to over $15 in a few hours, then plummeted below $10 in two hours, rebounded to briefly record a new all-time high above $17, then returned to around $13. 5 dollars.

In practice it made a +8% in just under 24 hours but passing through a +20% followed by a -36%, then by a +88% and then again by a -24%.

Furthermore, the current price is perfectly in line with that of May 29th before it made a first leap that took it above $15 for the first time in its history.

In other words, it can be said that it has been moving sideways for three days, but with truly notable volatility.

November Elections: Donald Trump Focuses on Cryptocurrency Regulation

It is clear that TRUMP memecoin price data is only useful for analyzing its volatility in the market or speculating on it.

The real issue, i.e. the political one, is something else entirely.

Trump remains the main challenger to current American President Joe Biden in November’s presidential elections.

It’s not yet clear how much yesterday’s conviction will affect his approval, but he is apparently already receiving statements of support from his bull supporters.

As regards the crypto world, Trump this year was very favorable to the development of the sector in the USA. The Biden administration, however, initially practically lashed out against it, only to then make a real U-turn in recent weeks by supporting, for example, the approval of the Spot ETF on Ethereum.

It is possible that cryptocurrencies are playing a certain role in the current election campaign, even if not a central one, but it seems that there is no candidate who, in words, is really against it.

In reality, the most pro-crypto candidate, although it would be better to say pro-BitcoinAND Robert Kennedy Jr.but he doesn’t seem to have any real chance of winning.

Only Biden and Trump remain, with the latter very favorable to cryptocurrencies, at least in words, while the former seems to have changed his mind lately and, although not openly favorable, at least seems to have become concretely tolerant.

However, it should not be forgotten that what politicians say during the election campaign is not law and, once elected, they often behave differently from the expectations they had generated with propaganda aimed exclusively at winning the elections.

The regulation of cryptocurrencies in the USA and the role of Donald Trump

The real issue at stake for the crypto sector it is normative in the USA, and this will presumably be definitively approved only after the elections.

This regulation, however, was not developed by Biden’s Democratic government, but by Congress, which has a Republican majority in the House and a Democratic majority in the Senate.

Republicans appear to be generally supportive not only of the evolution and expansion of the crypto industry, but also of more favorable national regulation. Among Democrats, however, the majority seems against it.

In fact, the Senate has been working on the regulation of cryptocurrencies for years, but the Democratic majority has not allowed its approval. Recently, however, the House approved an initial bill which, however, could be rejected in the Senate.

Trump promised during his election campaign that if he is elected he will help develop favorable crypto regulation.

Cryptocurrencies and the USA

The United States of America remains the most innovative country in the world, if only for the fact that the world’s largest innovative companies are based there.

As far as cryptocurrencies are concerned, the American company of reference is certainly Coinbase, which has also been listed on the Nasdaq since 2021, but MicroStrategy is also an American company.

At the same time, however, the biggest failure ever for a crypto exchange is that of the American FTX, despite it being based in the Bahamas.

The USA, especially during the first Trump administration, had become the global hub of the crypto sector, but during the Biden administration new foreign realities emerged, primarily Dubai.

Despite this, US markets remain absolutely dominant, even in the crypto sector, as demonstrated by the incredible boom generated by the mere arrival of Spot Bitcoin ETF on American stock exchanges.

While many other jurisdictions, primarily the European Union, have established a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, the US is still behind in this respect, making things difficult for local crypto companies like Coinbase.

In such turmoil, the SEC has also gotten involved, challenging various crypto entities in court, generally only to lose.

In light of this, it seems likely not only that in the event of Trump’s victory a new crypto regulation will be approved in the USA, but also that perhaps a similar result could be achieved in the event of Biden’s victory.

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