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Coinbase Trading Revenue Under Pressure as Crypto Comes of Age

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Coinbase Trading Revenue Under Pressure as Crypto Comes of Age

(Bloomberg) — It’s been a banner year for digital assets, but a shift into the mainstream is making price swings less wild, diminishing a key attraction for many investors and poised to dent the growth of the biggest source of revenue for exchanges like to Coinbase. Global Inc.

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Despite recording higher-than-expected revenue and profit in the first quarter, the consumer trading volume of the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange was $56 billion, compared to a peak of $177 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 in the height of the previous crypto bull run. Bitcoin trading volume – which fuels Coinbase’s trading fee revenue – has remained muted since the world’s largest cryptocurrency hit all-time highs in March following the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

“Volatility looks much more mature this cycle than it did in 2021,” said Alesia Haas, chief financial officer at Coinbase, during the JPMorgan Annual Global Technology, Media and Communications Conference last week. “The volatility of Bitcoin, the volatility of Ethereum starts to arrive, what I call, on the network.”

The average volatility of digital assets fell to 57% this year from around 79% in 2021, according to researcher CCData. Greater volatility tends to attract more speculative traders.

At the May investor conference, Coinbase executives mentioned words like “maturity” and “maturation” seven times – especially when talking about the crypto market.

What’s driving all the talk about the market maturing is the fact that for both Coinbase and other exchanges, this year’s trading fee revenue is unlikely to match 2021’s surge.

Other exchanges are also predicting lower volatility this year, in part as a result of the creation of the spot Bitcoin ETF, leading to more orderly inflows and less chaos. Furthermore, the prices of tokens – including Bitcoin – are already high, meaning they simply may not be able to rise as quickly.

“The market is more mature today and is less likely to experience wild swings,” said Bobby Zagotta, CEO of Bitstamp USA. “It will still be volatile and there will still be upward momentum in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices, but I don’t think it will be as explosive up and down as previous cycles.”

Thomas Perfumo, head of strategy at Kraken, echoed this sentiment. “I don’t think we’re going to have many repeats of what we’ve seen in previous markets in terms of magnitude of growth,” he said in an interview. .

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Coinbase’s future is far from bleak. Net profit, for example, is expected to increase around 20 times this year compared to 2023, data compiled by Bloomberg show. But absolute revenue and net profit numbers are expected to still lag behind the 2021 peak.

The company’s outlook will depend on how long the current bull market is sustained. If it extends to 2025, John Todaro, an analyst at Needham & Co., expects Coinbase to generate more revenue. Coinbase’s ability to maintain spot market share will also be key, as its share fell to 4.18% in May from 6.5% in early 2023, according to CCData.

Still, Coinbase is now much more diversified and less dependent on trading fees than it was in 2021. The company already made about a third of its sales in the first quarter from other sources, such as stablecoin revenue share. USDC. It is also recording revenue from its Base blockchain, which debuted last year. That could be “a $300 million annual revenue opportunity,” Todaro said.

And Coinbase is already the custodian of most US spot Bitcoin ETFs. It is also listed as the custodian of five spot Ether ETFs that are close to being permitted by US regulators. Ether ETFs are not expected to be a significant revenue driver in the near term. But Owen Lau, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., expects them to increase Coinbase’s stature in the industry.

Some, like Lau, even argue that lower volatility makes Coinbase shares more attractive. Shares are up about 40% so far this year, although they are more than 30% below the all-time high reached in late 2021.

The maturity of the market will benefit Coinbase in the long run, “because Coinbase is diversifying away from just trading,” Lau said. “Coinbase’s revenue could become even more predictable. This means they could achieve a higher earnings multiple.”

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Bitcoin Will Surge to $100K After Q4, Here’s Why

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Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Shows Signs of Possible Narrative Shift; $100K Soon?

Dan Weiskopf, portfolio manager at Tidal Financial Group, spoke with David Lin and discussed the future prospects of Bitcoin. The focus was on the future of Bitcoin, especially its potential to reach $100,000. The talk also touched on recent market trends, noting strong interest in Bitcoin ETFs as a possible boost to its price. Looking ahead, there is hope that more platforms will approve Bitcoin ETFs, possibly pushing its price to $100,000.

Forecasts and Volatility: The Path to New Highs

While some predict Bitcoin could go as high as $150,000 or even $1 million, Dan agrees that it needs to hit $100,000 first. Dan also acknowledged Bitcoin’s volatility, saying that large price drops of as much as 50% to 70% could happen, drawing on his experience since 2017.

“We’re going to new highs because I think partly because ETF inflows have been really strong lately. Yeah, and then I think you’ll have more platforms approving spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q4, and we’re going to go up to 100K,” he said.

Big Investors and the Transformative Power of Bitcoin

He also discussed what is persuading large investors to get in on this cycle. He mentioned two key factors. Many argue that if you haven’t invested in Bitcoin, you’re missing out, citing its strong performance over the past decade. This pressure could influence returns and client expectations.

However, he emphasized a deeper reason: if you are not embracing the transformation driven by Bitcoin and digital assets, you may face challenges. This technology has the potential to reshape industries, just as the internet revolutionized business.

“A lot of people look at Bitcoin and crypto and don’t appreciate that with higher prices comes more supply. We talk about 100K, I would expect more supply to come into the market as we go up, and that’s not really new news, but it’s higher demand that’s offsetting that supply,” he added.

Read too: It’s time tor ETH Point ETF: Here’s What to Expect From the Ethereum Price Rally

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Bitcoin Jumps as Markets See Increased Chances of Trump Victory

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Bitcoin hit a two-week high on Monday as betting markets suggested a higher chance of crypto-friendly candidate Donald Trump winning the US presidential election.

The value of the world’s largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, was up about 5% as of 1:40 p.m. London time to $62,781.48, according to CoinGecko.

The rally follow the dramatic and failed assassination attempt about the former president Trump on Saturday.

“There is a ‘parallel’ to the assassination of President Reagan in 1981,” even though it was not an election year, Ben Emons, chief investment officer at FedWatch Advisors, said in an emailed note.

“After the incident, Reagan’s popularity skyrocketed amid a double-dip recession. The S&P 500, however, fell 9% in the aftermath due to the economic malaise. But in the current strong economy, former President Trump’s favorability is likely to skyrocket and impact markets positively.”

Investors said on the weekend they were hoping that so-called “Trump victory trades” would get a boost. These trades broadened to include several cryptocurrency stocks, such as Coinbase Global and miner Riot platformswhich rose 4.5% and 5.25%, respectively, in pre-market trading.

“Bitcoin’s price rose about 9% over the weekend, which could indicate that investors are hoping that a Trump presidency will create a more favorable regulatory climate for the crypto industry,” Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale Investments, told CNBC in an email.

Trump has yet to lay out any detailed proposals on cryptocurrency regulation, but the Republican candidate is now seen as broadly supportive of the sector — despite his past skepticism. He is set to speak at a major annual bitcoin conference later this month.

Trump’s campaign started accepting donations of the cryptocurrency industry in May and its the message became increasingly positive about the future of these digital assets. He also sought to position oneself against Democrats who are in favor of controlling the industry, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren.

“In addition, macro policy changes under a second Trump presidency — including continued deficit spending, reduced U.S. leadership in international affairs, weaker Federal Reserve independence, and a desire for currency weakness to help reduce the trade deficit, among other things — could introduce downside risks to the U.S. dollar in the medium term. Any downside risks to the U.S. dollar could provide support for Bitcoin’s price,” Pandl added.

Last month, analysts at Standard Chartered said that the US presidential election is the next key catalyst for bitcoin’s price and a Trump victory could push it to $150,000 by the end of the year.

“Cryptocurrencies have not had an easy time in recent months. We are currently in a crisis of previously growing capital inflows into this market that can be measured by the capitalization of stablecoins, which has frozen in the last two months,” Grzegorz Drozdz, market analyst at Conotoxia, told CNBC in an email.

With a higher likelihood of a Trump presidency and the consequent reduced chances of unrest and destabilization in the US, Drozdz now sees a potential “influx of confidence into the markets,” which could positively impact cryptocurrencies and bitcoin in the coming weeks.

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Germany Sells Final Bitcoin Reserves of Initial $3 Billion in Holdings

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Germany Sells Final Bitcoin Reserves of Initial $3 Billion in Holdings

Germany Sells Final Bitcoin Reserves of Initial $3 Billion in Holdings

The German government completed the sale of its remaining Bitcoin holdings on July 12. The final transaction involved 3,846 Bitcoin, valued at around $62,604 per Bitcoin, which were sent to “Flow Traders and 139Po,” entities likely for institutional/OTC deposit services, according to for Arkham Intelligence.

The majority of the 50,000 Bitcoins sold by the German government over the past three weeks originated from asset seizures. This sale marked the culmination of weeks of increased sales activity by the German government, which unloaded tens of thousands of Bitcoins in multiple tranches. This significant liquidation was a key factor in keeping the Bitcoin selloff at a low of $54,000 on July 5.

Despite Germany’s exit from its Bitcoin holdings, market pressures remain due to Mt. Gox’s impending $9 billion repayment plan. The Mt. Gox exchange, which collapsed in 2014 when Bitcoin was still in the hundreds of dollars, has long been a source of market anxiety. The repayment plan aims to compensate creditors, potentially adding significant selling pressure to the market in the coming weeks. However, it is difficult to estimate the impact of Mt. Gox’s repayment on the markets due to several factors.

Amid heightened selling pressure, institutional investors seized the opportunity to buy the dip. Data from CoinShares showed that U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $295 million in inflows during the week of July 8, reversing a trend of suppressed inflows into these investment funds. This activity suggests that institutional investors remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

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Bitcoin surges as traders bet on Donald Trump election victory after shooting

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Bitcoin surges as traders bet on Donald Trump election victory after shooting

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Bitcoin surged on Monday following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, as investors increased their bets on the former president winning the US presidential election in November.

Bitcoin’s price rose as much as 9.1 percent to $62,830, its highest level in two weeks, after a shooter hit Trump in the ear at a campaign rally over the weekend. The Republican is seen as the most pro-crypto candidate, having hosted industry executives at Mar-a-Lago and expressed enthusiasm for bitcoin mining in the U.S.

Trump’s campaign also accepted cryptocurrency payments, a first for a major U.S. political party, raising hopes of an end to the U.S. regulatory crackdown on the sector seen in recent years.

“The probability of a Donald Trump victory has increased significantly,” said Grzegorz Dróżdż, market analyst at exchange firm Conotoxia, adding that a Trump presidency would have a “positive impact” on cryptocurrencies.

Shares of Trump’s Truth social media company jumped 60 percent in premarket trading. Trump Media & Technology Group went public in March in a merger with a blank-check company and rallied ahead of the debate between Trump and President Joe Biden last month.

The slimmer chances of a second Trump presidency were also felt in broader financial markets. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose in a more muted version of the reaction that followed Biden’s disastrous debate performance.

Many investors believe Trump’s tax-cutting policies would increase deficits and inflation, hurting U.S. Treasuries and boosting the dollar, in a pattern similar to what occurred after his 2016 election victory.

The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.2% in morning trade, having weakened so far in July as investors increased their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose 0.03 percentage point to 4.21 percent, reflecting a small decline in price. Contracts tracking Wall Street’s blue-chip S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent ahead of the New York open.

Monday’s movements “touch[s] with a Trumpian theme given the popular narrative that he is good for business and… his pro-crypto stance,” Rabobank analysts said in a note to clients.

“For markets, the complexities of the US political landscape have boiled down to the assumption that the weekend’s events will lead to a greater chance of Trump winning the November presidential election,” they added.

Bitcoin peaked above $70,000 in mid-March but has struggled to make headway since the so-called halving event in April, when the number of daily bitcoins available for miners to share to secure the bitcoin network fell from 900 to 450. Some analysts had expected bitcoin to rebound after the halving.

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