Bitcoin
Calls Dominate Bitcoin Options Despite Price Drops and ETF Outflows

Although the usual volatility has been absent in the derivatives market, the slight fluctuations observed in recent days have still managed to reveal subtle market trends.
Between June 12th and 14th, Bitcoin Options open interest increased by $20.85 billion on June 12, to $21.91 billion on June 13, before decreasing to $21.42 billion on June 14.
Chart showing Bitcoin options open from June 8 to June 14, 2024 (Source: CoinGlass)
Open interest in Bitcoin futures also decreased slightly during the period, falling from $35.25 billion on June 12 to $34.17 billion on June 14.
Chart showing Bitcoin futures open interest from June 6 to June 14, 2024 (Source: CoinGlass)
The initial increase in open interest followed by a subsequent decline suggests complex market sentiment when analyzed alongside price. Bitcoin fell from $69,555 on June 11 to $66,780 on June 14 after a brief recovery on June 13. The predominance of call options (67.17%) over put options (32.83%) on June 14 indicates a general bullish sentiment despite the price drop. 24-hour options volume on June 14 also skewed towards calls (59.88%), reinforcing this bullish outlook even in a declining price environment.
The distribution of calls and puts on Bitcoin options open interest and volume as of June 14, 2024 (Source: CoinGlass)
These subtle changes in OI were the result of a combination of several factors that influenced the broader cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin ETFs have had mixed experiences Appetizer It is exits in the last days. The recovery of Bitcoin ETFs with inflows of $100 million, juxtaposed with a sharp outflow of $226 million amid the Ethereum ETF news, shows the size of the impact the market has taken. This outflow likely contributed to the decrease in demand for Bitcoin futures, as evidenced by the decline in futures open interest.
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s decisive words that Ethereum ETFs will be approved This summer likely diverted investor attention and capital to Ethereum, impacting the Bitcoin derivatives market. This shift is evident in the Ethereum futures and options market, where increases in open interest in recent days reflect this shift in sentiment.
Chart showing Ethereum open options from June 8 to June 14, 2024 (Source: CoinGlass)
by MicroStrategy issuance of convertible notes for buy more BTC has also shaped investor sentiment. michael saylor The latest move demonstrates the company’s unwavering confidence in Bitcoin, which can certainly influence investors participating in the derivatives market. This influence is seen in their ability to maintain and add to bullish positions despite a stable price, as can be seen in the dominance of call options.
ETF outflows have a direct impact on Bitcoin futures and options markets. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs could lead to reduced liquidity and demand in the futures market, causing a decrease in open interest. This link is evident from the data, where we observe a decline in futures open interest following significant ETF outflows. The relationship between ETF flows and futures open interest shows the importance of institutional participation and sentiment in driving the market.
Bitcoin’s sideways movement and lack of significant volatility during this period have a dampening effect on open interest. When the price remains relatively stable, traders may find fewer profit opportunities, leading to reduced trading activity and fewer open futures contracts. Bitcoin’s stable price range from June 10 to June 14, with minor fluctuations, suggests a period of market consolidation, contributing to the observed decline in futures open interest.
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin Will Surge to $100K After Q4, Here’s Why

Dan Weiskopf, portfolio manager at Tidal Financial Group, spoke with David Lin and discussed the future prospects of Bitcoin. The focus was on the future of Bitcoin, especially its potential to reach $100,000. The talk also touched on recent market trends, noting strong interest in Bitcoin ETFs as a possible boost to its price. Looking ahead, there is hope that more platforms will approve Bitcoin ETFs, possibly pushing its price to $100,000.
Forecasts and Volatility: The Path to New Highs
While some predict Bitcoin could go as high as $150,000 or even $1 million, Dan agrees that it needs to hit $100,000 first. Dan also acknowledged Bitcoin’s volatility, saying that large price drops of as much as 50% to 70% could happen, drawing on his experience since 2017.
“We’re going to new highs because I think partly because ETF inflows have been really strong lately. Yeah, and then I think you’ll have more platforms approving spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q4, and we’re going to go up to 100K,” he said.
Big Investors and the Transformative Power of Bitcoin
He also discussed what is persuading large investors to get in on this cycle. He mentioned two key factors. Many argue that if you haven’t invested in Bitcoin, you’re missing out, citing its strong performance over the past decade. This pressure could influence returns and client expectations.
However, he emphasized a deeper reason: if you are not embracing the transformation driven by Bitcoin and digital assets, you may face challenges. This technology has the potential to reshape industries, just as the internet revolutionized business.
“A lot of people look at Bitcoin and crypto and don’t appreciate that with higher prices comes more supply. We talk about 100K, I would expect more supply to come into the market as we go up, and that’s not really new news, but it’s higher demand that’s offsetting that supply,” he added.
Read too: It’s time tor ETH Point ETF: Here’s What to Expect From the Ethereum Price Rally
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Jumps as Markets See Increased Chances of Trump Victory

CFOTO | Future Publishing | Getty Images
Bitcoin hit a two-week high on Monday as betting markets suggested a higher chance of crypto-friendly candidate Donald Trump winning the US presidential election.
The value of the world’s largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, was up about 5% as of 1:40 p.m. London time to $62,781.48, according to CoinGecko.
The rally follow the dramatic and failed assassination attempt about the former president Trump on Saturday.
“There is a ‘parallel’ to the assassination of President Reagan in 1981,” even though it was not an election year, Ben Emons, chief investment officer at FedWatch Advisors, said in an emailed note.
“After the incident, Reagan’s popularity skyrocketed amid a double-dip recession. The S&P 500, however, fell 9% in the aftermath due to the economic malaise. But in the current strong economy, former President Trump’s favorability is likely to skyrocket and impact markets positively.”
Investors said on the weekend they were hoping that so-called “Trump victory trades” would get a boost. These trades broadened to include several cryptocurrency stocks, such as Coinbase Global and miner Riot platformswhich rose 4.5% and 5.25%, respectively, in pre-market trading.
“Bitcoin’s price rose about 9% over the weekend, which could indicate that investors are hoping that a Trump presidency will create a more favorable regulatory climate for the crypto industry,” Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale Investments, told CNBC in an email.
Trump has yet to lay out any detailed proposals on cryptocurrency regulation, but the Republican candidate is now seen as broadly supportive of the sector — despite his past skepticism. He is set to speak at a major annual bitcoin conference later this month.
Trump’s campaign started accepting donations of the cryptocurrency industry in May and its the message became increasingly positive about the future of these digital assets. He also sought to position oneself against Democrats who are in favor of controlling the industry, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren.
“In addition, macro policy changes under a second Trump presidency — including continued deficit spending, reduced U.S. leadership in international affairs, weaker Federal Reserve independence, and a desire for currency weakness to help reduce the trade deficit, among other things — could introduce downside risks to the U.S. dollar in the medium term. Any downside risks to the U.S. dollar could provide support for Bitcoin’s price,” Pandl added.
Last month, analysts at Standard Chartered said that the US presidential election is the next key catalyst for bitcoin’s price and a Trump victory could push it to $150,000 by the end of the year.
“Cryptocurrencies have not had an easy time in recent months. We are currently in a crisis of previously growing capital inflows into this market that can be measured by the capitalization of stablecoins, which has frozen in the last two months,” Grzegorz Drozdz, market analyst at Conotoxia, told CNBC in an email.
With a higher likelihood of a Trump presidency and the consequent reduced chances of unrest and destabilization in the US, Drozdz now sees a potential “influx of confidence into the markets,” which could positively impact cryptocurrencies and bitcoin in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin
Germany Sells Final Bitcoin Reserves of Initial $3 Billion in Holdings

Germany Sells Final Bitcoin Reserves of Initial $3 Billion in Holdings
The German government completed the sale of its remaining Bitcoin holdings on July 12. The final transaction involved 3,846 Bitcoin, valued at around $62,604 per Bitcoin, which were sent to “Flow Traders and 139Po,” entities likely for institutional/OTC deposit services, according to for Arkham Intelligence.
The majority of the 50,000 Bitcoins sold by the German government over the past three weeks originated from asset seizures. This sale marked the culmination of weeks of increased sales activity by the German government, which unloaded tens of thousands of Bitcoins in multiple tranches. This significant liquidation was a key factor in keeping the Bitcoin selloff at a low of $54,000 on July 5.
Despite Germany’s exit from its Bitcoin holdings, market pressures remain due to Mt. Gox’s impending $9 billion repayment plan. The Mt. Gox exchange, which collapsed in 2014 when Bitcoin was still in the hundreds of dollars, has long been a source of market anxiety. The repayment plan aims to compensate creditors, potentially adding significant selling pressure to the market in the coming weeks. However, it is difficult to estimate the impact of Mt. Gox’s repayment on the markets due to several factors.
Amid heightened selling pressure, institutional investors seized the opportunity to buy the dip. Data from CoinShares showed that U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $295 million in inflows during the week of July 8, reversing a trend of suppressed inflows into these investment funds. This activity suggests that institutional investors remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin surges as traders bet on Donald Trump election victory after shooting

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Bitcoin surged on Monday following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, as investors increased their bets on the former president winning the US presidential election in November.
Bitcoin’s price rose as much as 9.1 percent to $62,830, its highest level in two weeks, after a shooter hit Trump in the ear at a campaign rally over the weekend. The Republican is seen as the most pro-crypto candidate, having hosted industry executives at Mar-a-Lago and expressed enthusiasm for bitcoin mining in the U.S.
Trump’s campaign also accepted cryptocurrency payments, a first for a major U.S. political party, raising hopes of an end to the U.S. regulatory crackdown on the sector seen in recent years.
“The probability of a Donald Trump victory has increased significantly,” said Grzegorz Dróżdż, market analyst at exchange firm Conotoxia, adding that a Trump presidency would have a “positive impact” on cryptocurrencies.
Shares of Trump’s Truth social media company jumped 60 percent in premarket trading. Trump Media & Technology Group went public in March in a merger with a blank-check company and rallied ahead of the debate between Trump and President Joe Biden last month.
The slimmer chances of a second Trump presidency were also felt in broader financial markets. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose in a more muted version of the reaction that followed Biden’s disastrous debate performance.
Many investors believe Trump’s tax-cutting policies would increase deficits and inflation, hurting U.S. Treasuries and boosting the dollar, in a pattern similar to what occurred after his 2016 election victory.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.2% in morning trade, having weakened so far in July as investors increased their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose 0.03 percentage point to 4.21 percent, reflecting a small decline in price. Contracts tracking Wall Street’s blue-chip S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent ahead of the New York open.
Monday’s movements “touch[s] with a Trumpian theme given the popular narrative that he is good for business and… his pro-crypto stance,” Rabobank analysts said in a note to clients.
“For markets, the complexities of the US political landscape have boiled down to the assumption that the weekend’s events will lead to a greater chance of Trump winning the November presidential election,” they added.
Bitcoin peaked above $70,000 in mid-March but has struggled to make headway since the so-called halving event in April, when the number of daily bitcoins available for miners to share to secure the bitcoin network fell from 900 to 450. Some analysts had expected bitcoin to rebound after the halving.
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