Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Shows Signs of Possible Narrative Shift; $100K Soon?
Can Bitcoin do it? Can Bitcoin reclaim the $60k level as a strong support? We have been witnessing descending wicks for the past few weeks, including last week, but now we are seeing solid candle formations as reported by several analysts.
Current Price Movements and Resistance Levels
Analyst and investor Davinci Jeremie said that for 14 years, Bitcoin’s four-year pattern remained unchanged until March 2024, when the price started showing signs of deviation. He noted that a similar instance occurred in November 2022, when Bitcoin broke below its previous all-time high, marking a significant change. Despite this, Bitcoin saw a run to new all-time highs in February and March, just before the halving event.
Looking ahead to 2025, he remains cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin, suggesting a potential maximum price of around $100,000. He said market manipulation could impact price movements, pointing to issues such as Consumer Price Index (IPC) adjustments and geopolitical tensions that affect sentiment.
Comparing historical downturn cycles
However, analyst Rekt Capital wrote, “Not only is Bitcoin rejecting daily resistance at $58,350 (black), but a new lower high (orange) may also be developing. This isn’t conclusive, but if Bitcoin is to rally to $60,600 (blue) over the weekend, Bitcoin will need to close daily above black resistance to invalidate the initial lower high and set the price for that rally to $60,600.”
Previously, Rekt Capital had said that in January 2023, we saw the largest pullback in that cycle at 23%. A year later, it took that long to surpass that pullback record, reaching 23.8%. Now, just two and a half months later, we are breaking that record again with the largest pullback in the current cycle at 25.6%.
We are currently at 46 days, indicating that this retracement is also lasting longer than usual. Considering historical data, while some retracements have been as short as 3 weeks and others as long as 63 days, our current retracement is gradually becoming one of the longest observed.
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