Bitcoin
Bitcoin surges as traders bet on Donald Trump election victory after shooting
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Bitcoin surged on Monday following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, as investors increased their bets on the former president winning the US presidential election in November.
Bitcoin’s price rose as much as 9.1 percent to $62,830, its highest level in two weeks, after a shooter hit Trump in the ear at a campaign rally over the weekend. The Republican is seen as the most pro-crypto candidate, having hosted industry executives at Mar-a-Lago and expressed enthusiasm for bitcoin mining in the U.S.
Trump’s campaign also accepted cryptocurrency payments, a first for a major U.S. political party, raising hopes of an end to the U.S. regulatory crackdown on the sector seen in recent years.
“The probability of a Donald Trump victory has increased significantly,” said Grzegorz Dróżdż, market analyst at exchange firm Conotoxia, adding that a Trump presidency would have a “positive impact” on cryptocurrencies.
Shares of Trump’s Truth social media company jumped 60 percent in premarket trading. Trump Media & Technology Group went public in March in a merger with a blank-check company and rallied ahead of the debate between Trump and President Joe Biden last month.
The slimmer chances of a second Trump presidency were also felt in broader financial markets. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rose in a more muted version of the reaction that followed Biden’s disastrous debate performance.
Many investors believe Trump’s tax-cutting policies would increase deficits and inflation, hurting U.S. Treasuries and boosting the dollar, in a pattern similar to what occurred after his 2016 election victory.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.2% in morning trade, having weakened so far in July as investors increased their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose 0.03 percentage point to 4.21 percent, reflecting a small decline in price. Contracts tracking Wall Street’s blue-chip S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent ahead of the New York open.
Monday’s movements “touch[s] with a Trumpian theme given the popular narrative that he is good for business and… his pro-crypto stance,” Rabobank analysts said in a note to clients.
“For markets, the complexities of the US political landscape have boiled down to the assumption that the weekend’s events will lead to a greater chance of Trump winning the November presidential election,” they added.
Bitcoin peaked above $70,000 in mid-March but has struggled to make headway since the so-called halving event in April, when the number of daily bitcoins available for miners to share to secure the bitcoin network fell from 900 to 450. Some analysts had expected bitcoin to rebound after the halving.