Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price Reflects Basic Trading Dynamics, Not Suppression
Quick take
Since June 10, Bitcoin has suffered a notable decline, dropping from approximately $72,000 to $65,200. This drop coincides with significant activity in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs)which recorded outflows of around US$580.6 million, according to data from Farside.
This contrasts sharply with the previous record 19 consecutive trading days of inflows, worth around $4 billion, which coincided with Bitcoin’s price dropping from around $60,000 to $72,000 between May 13 and June 7.
Recent outflows represent approximately 4.3% of total inflows, aligning with a ~10% correction in Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin ETF Flow Table: (Source: Farside)
This discrepancy has led to questions about why the price of Bitcoin has not risen despite substantial inflows. One plausible explanation is “basis trading,” a strategy used by hedge funds and investors.
In this strategy, investors go long the underlying spot ETF products and short the futures market, creating a net-neutral trade that protects them whether the price rises or falls. Investors focus on the spread between the spot price and the futures price, as this spread determines the profitability of the base trade.
This approach is influenced by current positive financing rates, which are around 6%, according to Currency Currency. Traders are willing to incur higher costs to leverage long Bitcoin positions, often using market calendar futures. CME. These futures, traded at a premium to the spot price, can be rolled through a process known as “rolling forward”. O CME defines this is like exiting a futures contract that is expiring and at the same time entering a new one with a later expiration date, thus extending the position without interruption.
By selling short in the futures market while remaining long in the spot market, traders create a hedge that mitigates price movements, resulting in the observed “suppression” of the Bitcoin price.
The roll forward strategy allows traders to maintain exposure to Bitcoin without closing their positions at contract expiration. Consequently, the Bitcoin price is less sensitive to Bitcoin inflows despite significant flows, offering a potential explanation for why it did not reach new all-time highs following the $4 billion inflow.