Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price May Not Retest This Year’s Highs for Another Five Months
After its strong rally earlier this year, the summer slump may have arrived early for bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is up 48% year to date thanks to bullish enthusiasm surrounding the debut of bitcoin ETFs in the US in January and the halving on April 19. Bitcoin is on track for its first positive week in the last six, according to Coin Metrics. However, it fell 11% in the second quarter and is about 14% below its all-time high above $73,000 reached in March. Analysts remain bullish on bitcoin in the long term, but say the coming weeks will require some patience. “It could take three to five months for bitcoin to retest recent highs,” HC Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese told CNBC. “Then [we’re] short-term neutral to medium- to long-term cautious and bullish on bitcoin – and by extension miners.” BTC.CM = 3M mountain Bitcoin is down 11% this quarter Bitcoin miners offer high beta exposure to bitcoin and have historically outperformed it during bull cycles, he added. His top pick in the space is Wolfe Research technical analyst Rob Ginsberg, who shared a similar view on bitcoin: “Although we reiterate our position that over a multi-year period, it does. it makes sense to remain long. Signs of further near-term losses continue to mount,” he said in a note this week. “We continue to wonder if the last $70,000 rejection was the start of an epic double top.” Colonnese also pointed out that corrections between 25% and 30% are “par for the course” for bitcoin, even in bull cycles “We wouldn’t be surprised if bitcoin returned to the low-to-mid $50,000 range in the near term, as stubbornly high inflation slows the economy, growth and geopolitical issues remain important risks,” he said. Bitcoin has remained above $60,000 since early May, when it fell below that level for the first time since February. But analysts studying price charts consider this level vulnerable and have warned of a downside risk as low as $49,000. However, it is still early days for bitcoin in this cycle, according to Colonnese. Between this year’s increased demand for bitcoin ETFs and reduced supply due to the halving, the cryptocurrency’s supply and demand dynamics are attractive. Your basic scenario is that bitcoin will reach $100,000 this cycle. “Looking at previous price cycles, bitcoin has historically peaked between one to one and a half years after a halving event, with the bull phase lasting longer in each subsequent cycle,” Colonnese said. “Bitcoin rose to over $67,000 in November 2021, 546 days after the third halving event occurred in May 2020.” “Assuming a similar duration for this bullish phase of the price cycle, bitcoin may not reach the peak of the cycle until October 2025,” Colonnese added. – CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.