Ethereum
All of Michael Saylor’s Ethereum predictions were wrong
Michael Saylor has made many predictions during his career. And because he has become a billionaire, many believe his predictions are generally accurate. For example, Bitcoiners applauded his support for Bitcoin and his multi-billion dollar purchases. He invested at the right time and price and made billions in profits. So when Saylor decided to bet on the future of Ethereum, millions of people listened.
Unfortunately, Saylor was completely wrong with all of his Ethereum predictions.
First, he predicted that the SEC would classify Ethereum as an unregistered security. In his business conference in Las Vegas a few weeks ago, he said: “This summer it will become very clear to everyone that Ethereum is considered a crypto asset security, not a commodity. »
Second, Saylor predicted that US stock markets would never list a spot Ethereum ETF. “It will never be wrapped in a cash ETF. This will not be accepted by Wall Street; this will not be accepted by traditional institutional investors.
Furthermore, he claimed that Bitcoin spot ETFs would be the first and last type of cryptocurrency spot ETF. Pointing to the Bitcoin logo, he said: “It is the world’s only universal, consensus-accepted, institutional-grade crypto asset. There won’t be another one.
Each of these predictions was proven wrong within five weeks.
Learn more: Michael Saylor Drops Quarter Billion MSTR While Promoting Bitcoin
Saylor lost all his bets on Ethereum
Despite Joe Lubin’s ConsenSys lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), claiming that the commissioners secretly classified Ethereum as a security in a redacted document, there is no public evidence that they actually did so.
Learn more: ConsenSys says SEC has designated ETH as a security but won’t say where
Furthermore, the SEC recently approved three Amendment to Exchange Rules 19b-4 applications from three US stock exchanges – NYSE, NASDAQ and CBOE – to list ether spot ETFs. Once these historic approvals are obtained, the SEC will soon review and is widely expected to approve associated S-1 filings from up to nine ETF sponsors.
Worse still for Saylor, these sponsors include the largest and most traditional Wall Street institutions imaginable: BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, Ark and others.
This sets the final score of Saylor’s three Ethereum bets at 0-3: no security designation not registered with the SEC (However, at least), likely approval of the SEC’s spot ether ETF and support from traditional institutional investors.
Saylor lost many bets, then won one
Of course, Saylor lost other bets during his career. For example, he lost $15 million betting that Washington, D.C. wouldn’t notice his $25 million tax avoidance scheme. A few days ago he agreed to pay 40 million dollars to resolve his trial for tax fraud.
Saylor also lost $8.5 million in his bet that he would avoid an SEC penalty for reporting false financial results during the dot-com craze. He paid $8.2 million in stock, plus $350,000 for the settlement.
Saylor also lost an uncomfortable number of bets on which business strategy was best for MicroStrategy over two full decades. From late 2000 to 2020, MicroStrategy stock failed to come close to an all-time high despite Saylor’s continued leadership. Finally, in recent months, and thanks to the improving price of bitcoin, stocks are about two-thirds of the way back to their dot-com highs.
In all, Saylor was wrong on many bets during his career, but only one counted. His prediction that Bitcoin was worth buying on margin made up for all his previous and subsequent errors. His company, MicroStrategy, owns 214,400 bitcoins now worth more than $15 billion after purchasing at an average price of $35,180 per piece. With crypto trading at double that price today, MicroStrategy has doubled its $7.5 billion investment.
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