Bitcoin
Billionaires are selling Nvidia stock and buying an index fund that could rise as much as 5,655%, according to some Wall Street analysts
Artificial intelligence stocks have stolen the spotlight in recent months, but Bitcoin could be one of Wall Street’s next obsessions.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has been one of the hottest investment topics on Wall Street this year, and Nvidia (NVDA -2.61%) has become the quintessential AI stock due to its leadership in machine learning processors. But certain Wall Street analysts see a substantial opportunity taking shape around Bitcoin (BTC 0.68%) due to the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra of Bernstein believe that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and $1 million by 2030. This prediction ultimately implies a 1,415% upside from its current price of $66,000.
- Last year, Cathie Wood estimated that Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030, but she increased that number to $3.8 million following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Her latest prediction implies a 5,655% upside from the current price.
Several successful hedge fund managers sold Nvidia shares during the first quarter while simultaneously buying shares of iShares Bitcoin Investment Fund (I BITE 6.02%), one of the recently approved spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Citadel Advisors’ Ken Griffin sold 2.4 million shares of Nvidia in the first quarter, reducing his holdings by 68%. Meanwhile, he started a small position in the iShares Bitcoin Trust.
- David Shaw of DE Shaw sold 1.4 million shares of Nvidia in the first quarter, reducing his holding by 38%. Meanwhile, he started a small position in the iShares Bitcoin Trust.
- Millennium Management’s Israel Englander sold 720,004 shares of Nvidia in the first quarter, reducing his holding by 35%. Meanwhile, he started a fairly sizable position in the iShares Bitcoin Trust, so that ranks as his twelfth-largest holding, excluding options contracts.
The three billionaires mentioned above are notable because they run the top three hedge funds, measured by net gains since inception, according to LCH Investments. Readers should not interpret their trades as a bad investment in Nvidia, but rather that diversification has merit. Here’s why the iShares Bitcoin Trust is a worthwhile long-term holding for risk-tolerant investors.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are unlocking demand from institutional investors
At any given time, the price of Bitcoin is determined by supply and demand. However, its supply is capped at 21 million coins, so demand is ultimately the driving force behind price action. In other words, demand for Bitcoin would need to increase substantially for its price to reach $1 million, and even more substantially for its price to reach $3.8 million.
Bernstein and Ark Invest believe demand will come from Spot Bitcoin ETFsa new asset class approved by SEC earlier this year. Spot Bitcoin ETFs track the price of Bitcoin while keeping the cryptocurrency as the underlying asset and eliminate traditional sources of friction that may have kept retail It is institutional investors off the market, as detailed below.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow investors to add exposure to Bitcoin through their existing brokerage accounts. This eliminates the complexity of maintaining a separate portfolio with a cryptocurrency exchange. It also simplifies tax filing because most brokerages link directly to tax preparation software.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs are often cheaper. The iShares Bitcoin Trust has a Expense rate of 0.25%, which means investors will pay $25 per year for every $10,000 in the fund. But Coinbase charges 0.4% to 0.6% per transaction for orders under $10,000, meaning investors are hit with higher fees twice — once when they buy and once when they sell.
Bernstein and Ark Invest expect Bitcoin to follow different trajectories over the next decade, but they agree on one thing: demand from institutional investors will drive the anticipated gains.
We are still in the early stages of adoption, but institutional demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs has been evident in recent years. 13F Forms filed with the SEC. As mentioned, three major hedge funds — Citadel Advisor, DE Shaw, and Millennium Management — have initiated positions in the iShares Bitcoin Trust. Several major investment banks, including JP Morgan To chase, Morgan StanleyIt is Wells Fargoalso bought spot Bitcoin ETFs.
However, most institutional investors have very small positions at the moment, meaning their holdings represent inconsequential portions of their portfolios. But Bernstein analysts Chhugani and Sapra believe institutional investors are “in the process of evaluating ‘net long’ positions as they become comfortable with improving ETF liquidity.”
Similarly, Cathie Wood at Ark Invest believes that institutional investors will eventually put a little over 5% of their portfolios into spot Bitcoin ETFs. For context, institutions had nearly $120 trillion in assets under management last year, so Ark’s forecast implies that these investors will allocate more than $6 trillion to spot Bitcoin ETFs in the future. If that happens, Wood says the price of Bitcoin could reach $3.8 trillion.
History Says Bitcoin Will Hit New Highs Between April 2025 and October 2025
Bernstein is also bullish on Bitcoin because of the halving event which occurred in April 2024. “We believe that a new cycle starting with the halving is not a coincidence, but rather driven by unique supply and demand dynamics,” the analysts wrote in a recent note.
To elaborate, Bitcoin block subsidies — newly minted Bitcoin granted to miners to solve cryptographic puzzles to verify transaction blocks — are reduced by 50% every time 210,000 blocks are added to the blockchain. These halving events happen roughly once every four years, and the most recent one occurred in April.
This is significant because Bitcoin has already experienced three halving events before, and its price has always reached a new peak 12 to 18 months later, as shown in the chart below.
November 2012 |
10.485% |
371 days |
July 2016 |
3.103% |
525 days |
May 2020 |
707% |
546 days |
As shown above, post-halving returns have decreased with each subsequent halving event, simply because each subsequent halving event has a smaller impact on the total supply. But history suggests that Bitcoin will peak sometime between April 2025 and October 2025.
A Word of Caution for Investors
Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns, and price targets should never be taken for granted. Bitcoin is a relatively new asset class, and its limited history means that predicting its performance is essentially impossible.
Furthermore, Bitcoin has fallen by more than 50% on multiple occasions, and similar declines are plausible (if not likely) in the future. Investors comfortable with these risks should consider buying a position in the iShares Bitcoin Trust today. Adding exposure to the cryptocurrency is a great way to diversify a portfolio overloaded with AI stocks like Nvidia.
JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Wells Fargo is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Trevor Jennewine has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Coinbase Global, JPMorgan Chase, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Bitcoin
Grayscale Unveils Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF
Bitcoin Currency
Grayscale Investments The Bitcoin Mini Trust began trading on Wednesday with a 0.15% expense ratio, offering a lower-cost option for bitcoin exposure in the market.
The Mini Trust, which has the symbol BTC and trades on NYSE Arca, is structured as a spin-off of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). New shares will be distributed to existing GBTC shareholders with the fund contributing a portion of its bitcoin holdings to the new product. According to a company press releaseBTC’s S-1 registration statement became effective last week.
“The Grayscale team has believed in the transformative potential of Bitcoin since the initial launch of GBTC in 2013, and we are excited to launch the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust to help further lower the barrier to entry for Bitcoin in an SEC-regulated investment vehicle,” said David LaValle, Senior Managing Director and Head of ETFs at Grayscale.
The Bitcoin Mini Trust’s debut comes amid growing interest in ETFs based on the current price of the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, bitcoin and ether. Spot bitcoin ETFs have generated nearly $18 billion in inflows since the first ones began trading on Jan. 11, though GBTC has lost nearly $19 billion in assets.
This fund differs from other funds because it is a conversion of an existing fund and has a 1.5% fee, the highest among spot bitcoin products that have received SEC approval this year.
Mini Bitcoin Trust Low Fee
On a Post X On Wednesday, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted the Bitcoin Mini Trust’s “lowest fee in the category…”
“[Important] to recognize how incredibly cheap 15bps is — about 10x cheaper than spot ETFs in other countries and other vehicles,” Balchunas wrote, adding that this pricing strategy reflects the competitive nature of the U.S. ETF market, which he referred to as the “ETF Terrordome.”
“This is what Terrordome does to fund [cost]. It reaches 1.5% [and] end in 0.15%, how to go from [a] country club to the jungle. But that’s why all the flows are here, investor paradise,” he noted.
Read more: Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit Daily High of Over $1 Billion
Bitcoin was recently trading at around $66,350, virtually flat since U.S. markets opened on Wednesday.
Grayscale also offers two spot Ethereum ETFs, the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and the Grayscale Ethereum (ETH) Mini Trustwhose performance is based on ETHE. ETHE outflows exceeded $1.8 billion in its first six days of trading, while ETH added more than $181 million in the same period, according to Farside. The remaining seven ETFs generated about $1.2 billion in inflows.
The story continues
Read more: Spot Ethereum ETFs Approved to Start Trading
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Drops Below $65K After FOMC as Middle East Tensions Rise
Cryptocurrencies fell sharply on Wednesday as rising geopolitical risks captivated investors’ attention following the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $64,500 from around $66,500, where it traded following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference and is down more than 2% in the past 24 hours. Major altcoins including ether (ETH)sunbathing (SUN)Avalanche AVAX (AVAX) and Cardano (ADA) also fell, while Ripple’s XRP saved some of its early gains today. The broad cryptocurrency market benchmark CoinDesk 20 Index was 0.8% lower than 24 hours ago.
The liquidation happened when the New York Times reported that Iran’s leaders have ordered retaliation against Israel over the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, raising the risk of a wider conflict in the region.
Earlier today, the Fed left benchmark interest rates unchanged and gave little indication that a widely expected rate cut in September is a given. The Fed’s Powell said that while no decision has been made on a September cut, the “broad sense is that we are getting closer” to cutting rates.
While digital assets suffered losses, most traditional asset classes rose higher during the day. U.S. 10-year bond yields fell 10 basis points, while gold rose 1.5% to $2,450, slightly below its record highs, and WTI crude oil prices rose 5%. Stocks also rallied during the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index rebounding 3% and the S&P 500 closing the session 2.2% higher, led by 12% gains in chipmaker giant Nvidia (NVDA).
The different performances across asset classes could be due to traders’ positioning ahead of the Fed meeting, Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said in an emailed note.
“Equities may have been slightly underutilized after the recent dip, while bitcoin is coming off a strong period with solid inflows, while gold has recovered after a period of weakness,” he said.
“Overall, the combination of Fed rate cuts, bipartisan focus on cryptocurrency policy issues, and the prospect of a second Trump administration that could advocate for a weaker U.S. dollar should be viewed as very positive for bitcoin,” he concluded.
UPDATE (July 31, 2024, 21:30 UTC): Adds grayscale comments.
Bitcoin
Donald Trump’s Cryptocurrency Enthusiasm Is Just Another Scam
Former US President Donald Trump spoke at the Libertarian National Convention in May and lent his a strong support to crypto: “I will also stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto. … I will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of bitcoin is made in the US, not taken overseas. I will support the right to self-custody. To the 50 million crypto holders in the country, I say this: With your vote, I will keep Elizabeth Warren and her henchmen out of your bitcoin.”
Former US President Donald Trump spoke at the Libertarian National Convention in May and lent his a strong support to crypto: “I will also stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto. … I will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of bitcoin is made in the US, not taken overseas. I will support the right to self-custody. To the 50 million crypto holders in the country, I say this: With your vote, I will keep Elizabeth Warren and her henchmen out of your bitcoin.”
Trump continued to court the cryptocurrency industry in the months that followed; he he appeared at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville this week, along with independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s parting words to Trump — “Have fun with your bitcoin, your cryptocurrency and whatever else you’re playing with” — were less than enthusiastic, but the industry itself remains packed with ardent Trump supporters.
This turnaround came as a surprise, given Trump’s previous strong opposition to cryptocurrency. When Facebook was floating its Libra cryptocurrency in 2019, Trump tweeted: “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air.” Former national security adviser John Bolton’s White House memoir, The Room Where It Happened, quotes Trump as telling Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin: “Don’t be a trade negotiator. Go after Bitcoin.” [for fraud].” In 2021, Trump counted Fox Business that bitcoin “just looks like a scam. … I want the dollar to be the world’s currency.”
Why the change? There doesn’t seem to be any crypto votes. Trump’s “50 million” number comes from a poorly sampled push survey by cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase which claimed 52 million cryptocurrency users in the United States starting in February 2023. But one survey A survey conducted last October by the US Federal Reserve showed that only 7% of adults (about 18.3 million people) admitted to owning or using cryptocurrencies — down from 10% in 2022 and 12% in 2021. Many of these people are likely wallet owners who were left holding the bag after crypto plunged in 2022 — and are not necessarily new fans.
What Trump wants from the cryptocurrency industry is money. The cryptocurrency industry has already raised more than US$ 180 million to run in the 2024 US elections through his super PACs Fairshake, Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress.
Fairshake spent $10 million on taking Rep. Katie Porter in the primary battle for Dianne Feinstein’s California Senate seat by funding Porter’s pro-crypto rival Adam Schiff. This put $2 million to knock out Rep. Jamaal Bowman in the Democratic primary for New York’s 16th District in favor of pro-crypto George Latimer. In the Utah Senate Republican primary, Rep. John Curtis defeated Trent Staggs with the help of $4.7 million from Defend American Jobs. In Alabama’s House District 2, the majority of campaign expenses came from the cryptocurrency industry.
Fairshake is substantially financed by Coinbase, cryptocurrency issuer Ripple Labs, and Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, or a16z. Silicon Valley was awash in cryptocurrencies during the 2021 bubble, and a16z in particular continues to promote blockchain startups to this day — and still holds a huge amount of bubble crypto tokens that he wishes he could cash in on.
Many in Silicon Valley would like an authoritarian who they think will let them run wild with money — while bailing them out in tough times. Indeed, Trump promised Bitcoin 2024 participants that he hold all bitcoins that the United States acquires. (Never mind that it is usually acquired as the proceeds of crime.) Silicon Valley explicitly sees regulation of any kind as its greatest enemy. Three a16z manifestos — “Politics and the Future” It is “The Techno-Optimist Manifesto” and 2024 “The Small Tech Agenda—describe co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz’s demands for a technology-powered capitalism unhindered by regulation or social considerations. They name “experts,” “bureaucracy,” and “social responsibility” as their “enemies.” Their 2024 statement alleges that banks are unfairly cutting off startups from the banking system; these would be crypto companies funded by a16z.
Trump’s vice presidential pick, Senator J.D. Vance, is a former Silicon Valley venture capitalist. He was once employed by Peter Thiel, who bankrolled Vance’s successful 2022 Senate run; Vance has been described as a “Thiel creation”. He has increased support for the Trump ticket among his venture capital associates. Vance is a bitcoin holder and a frequent advocate of encryption. He recently released a draft bill to review how the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) control crypto assets. In 2023, he circulated a bill to prevent banks from cutting out cryptocurrency exchanges.
Minimal regulation has been tried before. It led to the wild exuberance of the 1920s, which ended with the Black Tuesday crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s. Regulators like the SEC were put in place during this era to protect investors and transform the securities market from a jungle into a well-tended garden, leading to many prosperous and stable decades that followed.
Crypto provides the opposite of a stable and functional system; it is a practical example of how a lack of regulation allows opportunists and scammers to cause large-scale disasters. The 2022 Crypto Crash repeated the 2008 financial crisis in miniature. FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried was feted as a financial prodigy who would perform economic miracles if you just gave him carte blanche; he ended up stealing billions of dollars of customers’ money, destroying the lives of ordinary people, and is now in a prison cell.
U.S. regulators have long been concerned about the prospect of cryptocurrency contagion to the broader economy. Criminal money laundering is rampant in cryptocurrency; even the Trump administration has made rules in December 2020 to reduce the risk of money laundering from crypto. Meanwhile, the crypto industry has persistently tried to infiltrate systemically risky corners of the economy, such as pension funds.
Four U.S. banks collapsed during the 2023 banking crisis, the first since 2020. Two of them, Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank, were deeply embedded in the crypto world — Silvergate in particular appears to have collapsed directly from its heavy reliance on FTX and failed a few months after that. Silicon Valley Bank was not involved in crypto but collapsed due to a run on the bench due to panic among venture capital deposit holders, particularly Thiel’s Founders Fund.
Project 2025the Heritage Foundation mammoth conservative wish list The plan, which Trump and Vance have both endorsed and tried to distance themselves from at various times, emphasizes the importance of party loyalists, noting especially financial regulation. The plan recommends replacing as much of the federal bureaucracy as possible with loyalists and “trusted” career officials rather than nonpartisan “experts.” Vance defended in 2021 that Trump should “fire every mid-level bureaucrat, every civil servant in the administrative state” and “replace them with our people.” Loyalty will likely trump competence.
Crypto is barely mentioned directly in Project 2025 — suggesting it has little active support among the broader conservative coalition. But near the end of the manifesto is a plan to dismantle most U.S. financial regulations and investor protections put in place since the 1930s, suggesting the exemption the crypto industry seeks from current SEC and CFTC regulations.
Bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, started as an ideological project to promote a strange variant of Murray Rothbard’s anarcho-capitalism and the Austrian gold-backed economy—the kind we abandoned to escape the Great Depression. Crypto quickly co-opted the “end of the Fed” and “establishment elites” conspiracy theories of the John Birch Society and Eustace Mullins. It’s a way for billionaire capitalists like Thiel, Andreessen and Elon Musk to claim they’re not part of the so-called elite.
If a second Trump administration were to limp along with financial regulators and allow cryptocurrencies to have free rein, it could help foster the collapse of the U.S. economy that bitcoin claimed to prevent. But Trump is more likely to be happy to take the crypto money and run.
Bitcoin
Trump’s Bitcoin (BTC) Reserve Plan Seen as Just a ‘Small Token Stash’
Donald Trump’s recent promise to create a “strategic national stockpile of Bitcoin” may not turn out to be as big a commitment as the hype surrounding the announcement makes it seem.
“Trump’s proposal is extremely modest,” said George Selgin, director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institutea Washington-based public policy group. “It doesn’t have much economic implication.”
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